中国市场采购预期提振美豆走出年内最猛上涨行情

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent surge in U.S. soybean futures prices, driven by expectations of increased purchases from China, reaching a 15-month high at over 1100 cents per bushel [1][2] - Following the U.S.-China consensus on expanding agricultural trade, U.S. soybean prices have increased by 7.26% since October 25, indicating strong market optimism [2][3] - Despite the positive outlook, U.S. soybeans still face competitive disadvantages due to a 13% tariff, compared to only 3% for Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, limiting their market appeal [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict that if China proceeds with soybean purchases, it could significantly reduce U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/2026 season, shifting the market from oversupply to a tighter balance [4] - The U.S. soybean harvest is nearing completion, with an estimated average yield of 53 bushels per acre, resulting in a production forecast of 4.26 billion bushels [5] - Historical data shows a shift in China's soybean import sources, with Brazil surpassing the U.S. as the largest supplier, indicating a long-term trend in sourcing preferences [6]