Will Lower Transaction Fees Affect MarketAxess' Q3 Earnings?

Core Insights - MarketAxess Holdings Inc. is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on November 7, 2025, with earnings estimated at $1.69 per share and revenues of $206.42 million [1] Earnings Estimates - Third-quarter earnings estimates have been revised downward by 18 cents over the past 60 days, indicating an 11.1% decrease from the previous year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decline of 0.1% [2] Full-Year Projections - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $852.89 million, reflecting a 4.4% year-over-year increase, while the earnings per share estimate is $7.24, indicating a 0.6% decline year-over-year [3] Historical Performance - MarketAxess has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, having beaten the consensus in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 3% [4] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for MarketAxess, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [5] Factors Influencing Q3 Results - Lower transaction fees and increased expenses may counterbalance gains from Eurobond and Emerging Markets trading growth [8] - The total trading volume is expected to decrease by 0.4% year-over-year, with U.S. high-grade trading volume projected to decline by 3% [9] Trading Volume Insights - Eurobonds trading volumes are estimated to grow by 16.6% year-over-year, while Emerging Markets are expected to see a 12.6% increase [10] Revenue and Fee Estimates - The consensus estimate for commissions is $178.6 million, indicating a 1% decline from the prior year, with a 7% year-over-year fall in average variable transaction fees per million [11] - Total expenses are projected to rise to approximately $126.4 million, reflecting a 5.6% year-over-year increase [12] Information Services Revenue - Higher information services revenues are anticipated, with a consensus estimate of $13.4 million, indicating a 3.5% rise from the previous year [13]