COP Beats Q3 Earnings Estimates, Hikes '25 Production Guidance

Core Insights - ConocoPhillips (COP) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.61, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.40, but down from $1.78 in the prior year [1][9] - Quarterly revenues reached $15.5 billion, up from $13.6 billion year-over-year, and also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.6 billion [1][9] Production - Total production averaged 2,399 thousand barrels of oil-equivalent per day (MBoe/d), an increase from 1,917 MBoe/d in the same quarter last year, and above the estimate of 2,343 MBoe/d [3][9] - Crude oil production rose to 1,146 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d) from 957 MBbls/d year-over-year, also beating the estimate of 1,122.3 MBbls/d [4] - Natural gas liquids production totaled 436 MBbls/d, up from 310 MBbls/d a year ago, surpassing the estimate of 358.1 MBbls/d [4] - Natural gas production was 4,167 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), higher than 3,381 MMcf/d in the prior year [5] Realized Prices - The average realized oil equivalent price decreased to $46.44 per barrel from $54.18 a year ago [6] - The average realized crude oil price was $66.13 per barrel, down from $76.77 year-over-year, and below the projection of $67.07 per barrel [6] - The average realized natural gas price fell to $4.28 per thousand cubic feet from $4.42 in the previous year [6] - Realized natural gas liquids price decreased to $19.20 per barrel from $21.93 year-over-year [6] Expenses - Total expenses increased to $12.6 billion from $10.4 billion in the corresponding period of 2024, exceeding the projection of $11.5 billion [7] - The cost of purchased commodities rose to $5.9 billion from $4.8 billion a year ago [7] - Exploration costs slightly increased to $71 million from $70 million in the comparable period of 2024 [7] Balance Sheet & Capital Spending - As of September 30, 2025, ConocoPhillips had $5.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with total long-term debt of $22.5 billion and short-term debt of $1.02 billion [10] - Capital expenditure and investments totaled $2.87 billion, with net cash provided by operating activities at $5.9 billion [10] Guidance - For Q4 2025, production is expected to be between 2.30 to 2.34 MBoe/d, with full-year production anticipated at 2.375 MMBoe/d, an increase from the previous guidance of 2.35-2.37 MMBoe/d [11] - The company reduced its full-year adjusted operating cost guidance to $10.6 billion from the previously stated $10.7-$10.9 billion [11] - Preliminary 2026 guidance indicates capital expenditure of $12 billion, which is $0.5 billion lower than the midpoint of its 2025 guidance, and adjusted operating costs for 2026 are expected to be $10.2 billion, suggesting a $0.4 billion decrease from 2025 guidance [12]