Lithium Americas (US:LAC) Benzinga·2025-11-06 18:09Core Viewpoint - The lithium market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical factors, particularly changes in US-China relations and China's easing of export restrictions on critical minerals, leading to a sharp decline in lithium stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC) has seen a 45% decline in stock price over the past month, attributed to shifting rhetoric from the Trump administration regarding US-China relations [1]. - Other companies in the sector also faced declines, with Standard Lithium Ltd. dropping 21%, Sigma Lithium Corp. falling 32%, and Albemarle Corp. slipping 0.08% [2]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - JPMorgan's Bill Peterson downgraded LAC during the peak of its hype but has since upgraded it back to Neutral, indicating that shares now appear fairly valued after the recent selloff [3]. - Peterson describes Thacker Pass as a flagship U.S. lithium asset, noting that its valuation has decreased from approximately 2x NPV to near 1x NPV, which better reflects execution risk and supply-demand fundamentals [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - JPMorgan's metals team anticipates that lithium will enter a deficit by 2025, moving the forecast forward by four years, with long-term battery-grade carbonate prices expected to stabilize around $15,000 per ton [4]. - The lithium market is transitioning from speculative trading to a focus on fundamentals, suggesting that while recent volatility has occurred, the underlying demand for lithium remains strong [5].