债市波动拖累投资收益银行非息收入增长现分化

Core Viewpoint - In a low interest rate environment, banks are increasingly relying on non-interest income to drive revenue growth, with significant disparities in performance among different banks [1][2]. Non-Interest Income Overview - In the first three quarters of the year, 42 listed banks achieved a total non-interest income of 1.22 trillion yuan, an increase of over 300 billion yuan compared to the first half of the year and an increase of 583 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - Only 18 banks reported a year-on-year increase in non-interest income, while 8 banks experienced a decline in investment income due to bond market volatility, and 31 banks reported negative fair value changes [1][2]. Fee and Commission Income - Among the non-interest income components, net fee and commission income, investment income, and fair value changes significantly impacted overall non-interest income [1]. - 27 banks reported a year-on-year increase in net fee and commission income, with 12 banks showing growth exceeding 10%. Notably, Changshu Bank and Ruifeng Bank saw increases of 364.75% and 162.66%, respectively [1][2]. Wealth Management and Consumer Finance - The recovery in domestic consumption and capital markets has created opportunities for wealth management and consumer finance, contributing to the growth of some banks' intermediary business income [2]. - China Bank attributed its growth in net fee and commission income to strong performance in agency, custody, and other entrusted businesses [2]. Impact of Bond Market Volatility - The bond market's fluctuations have negatively affected investment income and fair value changes for several banks. For instance, 8 banks reported a year-on-year decline in investment income, and 31 banks had negative fair value changes [2][3]. - For example, China Merchants Bank reported a 4.23% year-on-year decline in non-interest net income, with a 0.90% increase in net fee and commission income but an 11.42% decrease in other net income due to reduced bond and fund investment returns [2]. Regional Banks' Performance - Regional banks like Qingdao Bank also faced challenges, with a year-on-year decrease in investment income and fair value changes due to weaker bond market performance [3]. - Conversely, some banks, such as China Construction Bank and Changsha Bank, reported over 100% year-on-year growth in investment income [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the bond market is likely to remain volatile in the short term, with various factors creating disturbances [4]. - The overall liquidity in the market is expected to remain favorable for the bond market, but the performance of risk assets may weaken the attractiveness of bonds [4][5].