债市波动拖累投资收益 银行非息收入增长现分化

Core Viewpoint - In a low interest rate environment, banks are increasingly relying on non-interest income as a key driver for revenue growth, with significant disparities emerging among different banks in terms of non-interest income performance [1] Non-Interest Income Overview - In the first three quarters of this year, 42 listed banks achieved a total non-interest income of 1.22 trillion yuan, an increase of over 300 billion yuan compared to the first half of the year and an increase of 583 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Among these banks, only 18 reported positive year-on-year growth in non-interest income, while 8 banks experienced a decline in investment income due to bond market fluctuations, and 31 banks reported negative fair value changes [1] Fee and Commission Income - A breakdown of non-interest income shows that net fee and commission income, investment income, and fair value changes significantly impact overall non-interest income [2] - In the first three quarters, 27 banks reported positive year-on-year growth in net fee and commission income, with 12 banks achieving growth rates exceeding 10% [2] - Notable performers include Changshu Bank and Ruifeng Bank, with increases of 364.75% and 162.66% respectively, while major state-owned banks like Agricultural Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Bank of China also reported steady growth [2] Impact of Bond Market Fluctuations - The bond market's volatility has negatively affected investment income and fair value changes for several banks, leading to declines in non-interest income and overall revenue growth [3] - For instance, China Merchants Bank reported a 4.23% year-on-year decline in non-interest net income, primarily due to reduced returns from bond and fund investments [3] - Other banks, such as Ping An Bank and Huaxia Bank, also reported significant declines in revenue attributed to market fluctuations affecting their non-interest income [3] Regional Bank Performance - Regional banks like Qingdao Bank faced similar challenges, with a year-on-year decrease in investment income and fair value changes due to weaker bond market performance [4] - Conversely, some banks, such as China Construction Bank and Changsha Bank, reported over 100% year-on-year growth in investment income [4] Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the bond market is likely to remain volatile in the short term, with fluctuations in fair value changes being more pronounced for joint-stock and regional banks due to their higher proportion of FVTPL assets [5] - Experts recommend that banks focus on differentiated operations and niche markets to support non-interest income growth, while also balancing short-term gains with long-term risks [6] - The outlook for the bond market indicates a gradual return to fundamentals and liquidity, but uncertainties remain regarding the growth of other non-interest income sources [6]