Jefferies Sees Solid Quarter but Limited Upside for Bitcoin Miner MARA

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies maintains a hold rating on MARA Holdings shares after the company reported third-quarter results that met Wall Street expectations, while adjusting its price target from $19 to $16 [1] Financial Performance - MARA reported $252 million in revenue, slightly above Jefferies' estimate of $245 million and consensus estimate of $251 million [2] - The company mined 2,144 bitcoin, representing a 4% increase year-over-year but a 9% decrease sequentially, with adjusted EBITDA around $396 million, which includes a $234 million fair-value gain on digital assets [2] Cash Position - At the end of the quarter, MARA held approximately $6.85 billion in cash and bitcoin, providing significant flexibility for future expansion [3] Strategic Developments - MARA's letter of intent with MPLX to co-develop gas-fired generation and data center campuses in West Texas is seen as a potential structural advantage, with a 400-megawatt project that can scale to 1.5 gigawatts [4] - This initiative could enable MARA to control its own power generation and optimize energy use between bitcoin mining, grid sales, and AI workloads [4][5] Cost Management and AI Integration - The partnership with MPLX may help reduce costs and mitigate risks associated with energy market volatility, although final agreements and regulatory approvals are still pending [5] - MARA's first AI inference deployment at its Granbury, Texas site, involving ten racks repurposed for edge computing, is viewed as strategically important for future revenue opportunities [6]