大摩警告美元“虚假繁荣”难持久，劳动力市场数据将成终极审判

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is masking structural weaknesses in the labor market, which could lead to a decline in the dollar once economic data resumes publication [1] Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The absence of U.S. labor market data allows investors to overlook the potential trend of a structural slowdown in hiring [1] - The latest non-farm payroll report indicated a significant slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate reaching its highest level since 2021 [5] - Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in October was the highest for that month in over 20 years [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance and Predictions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for the second consecutive day, marking its largest decline since mid-October, as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The dollar has declined by 6.8% year-to-date, with the first half of the year showing the worst performance in decades [5] - Analysts predict that the dollar may face significant selling pressure, particularly against the euro, with expectations that the euro could rise to 1.20 against the dollar by year-end [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The ongoing government shutdown raises doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to receive sufficient data to support another rate cut in December [5] - Morgan Stanley shifted its outlook on the dollar from bearish to neutral, indicating that a significant change in U.S. interest rate prospects is needed for the dollar to sustain its strength [6] - The narrative surrounding the labor market is becoming increasingly soft, which could shift the support from yield-driven factors to potential risks [5]