达利欧：美联储结束QT=在泡沫中刺激经济 美国“大债务周期”已进入最危险阶段！

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the Federal Reserve's decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) may be adding fuel to an already inflated bubble, rather than stimulating a depressed economy [1] Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The current environment of the Federal Reserve's easing policy coincides with high asset valuations and a relatively strong economy, which Dalio describes as "stimulus into a bubble" [1] - Dalio believes the U.S. "big debt cycle" has entered a dangerous phase, characterized by the Federal Reserve printing money to buy bonds when the supply of U.S. debt exceeds demand [2] - The current economic indicators show a strong economy with an average real growth rate of 2% over the past year and an unemployment rate of only 4.3% [6] Group 2: Quantitative Easing (QE) Mechanism - Dalio explains that the transmission mechanism of QE is driven by relative attractiveness rather than absolute attractiveness, influencing investor choices based on expected total returns [3] - The implementation of QE typically creates liquidity and lowers real interest rates, which can inflate asset prices and widen the wealth gap between asset holders and non-holders [3] Group 3: Historical Context of QE - Historically, QE has been deployed during economic downturns, characterized by falling asset valuations and high unemployment, contrasting sharply with the current high asset valuations and low unemployment [6][7] - Current asset valuations are high, with the S&P 500 earnings yield at 4.4% compared to a 10-year Treasury yield of 4%, indicating a low equity risk premium of about 0.3% [6] Group 4: Risks of Current Policies - Dalio warns that the current combination of fiscal expansion, monetary easing, and regulatory relaxation is creating a "super-easy" environment that may lead to a liquidity melt-up similar to the 1999 internet bubble [9] - The potential for inflation to become unmanageable increases as the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expands and interest rates are lowered while fiscal deficits remain large [8][9]