Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-11-06 23:53Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the global supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum will remain balanced over the next three years, contingent upon China's full production and the timely release of new overseas production capacity [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The balance in supply and demand is heavily reliant on China's electrolytic aluminum production being at full capacity and the expected increase in overseas production capacity [1] - Any disruption in supply could lead to a situation where demand outstrips supply, resulting in upward pressure on prices [1] Price Trends - The report suggests that the chain reaction of high prices leading to high profits and new supply is vulnerable to supply issues, making prices more likely to rise than fall [1] - The potential for accelerated price increases exists, particularly if the competition for AI investments in Europe and the U.S. encounters electricity supply constraints, which could threaten over 4 million tons of existing supply [1]