IEA称随着欧佩克+增产石油市场将供应过剩

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its oil supply growth forecast for this year and expects this trend to continue into next year, indicating a potential oversupply in the oil market despite low demand [1] Supply Forecast - The IEA predicts that oil supply will increase by 3 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2025, up from a previous forecast of 2.7 million bpd [1] - The IEA also forecasts that global oil demand will grow by 710,000 bpd in 2025, which is a downward revision of 30,000 bpd from earlier estimates [1] - For 2026, global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.4 million bpd [1] Demand Outlook - The IEA indicates that oil consumption will remain subdued in the latter part of 2025 and into 2026 due to a challenging macroeconomic environment and the electrification of transportation [1] - The pace of energy transition is anticipated to be faster than previously predicted by OPEC and other institutions [1] OPEC's Perspective - OPEC's recent monthly report predicts that oil demand growth for this year will reach 1.3 million bpd, nearly double the IEA's forecast [1] Current Market Conditions - The IEA acknowledges that the global oil market is currently experiencing an oversupply, with September's global oil supply increasing by 5.6 million bpd year-on-year, including a 3.1 million bpd increase from OPEC+ [1] - The IEA now expects next year's supply to exceed demand by approximately 4 million bpd, an increase from the previous estimate of 3.3 million bpd [1]