智通财经网·2025-11-07 00:17Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum will remain balanced over the next three years, contingent on China's full production and the timely release of new overseas capacities, with any supply disruptions potentially leading to shortages and price increases [1][3] - As of September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is projected to reach 44.45 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 101.2%, indicating a tight supply situation [1] - Global aluminum supply is expected to grow at rates of 2.4%, 2.0%, and 3.5% from 2026 to 2028, with total supply reaching 76.58 million tons, 78.10 million tons, and 80.81 million tons respectively [1] Group 2 - Aluminum consumption is expected to continue outperforming market expectations, driven by growth in specific applications and the material's lightweight properties penetrating new fields [2] - China's electrolytic aluminum consumption growth is projected at 1.5%, 2.2%, and 2.3% from 2026 to 2028, while overseas consumption is expected to grow at 3.2%, 3.0%, and 3.2% during the same period [2] - Global aluminum consumption is forecasted to reach 76.51 million tons, 78.45 million tons, and 80.49 million tons from 2026 to 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.1%, 2.5%, and 2.6% [2] Group 3 - The supply-demand balance for aluminum is fragile, with profits expected to expand due to rigid supply conditions, and prices may accelerate upward if supply disruptions occur [3] - Profit forecasts for the aluminum industry are adjusted to 5,000, 5,500, and 6,000 yuan per ton for 2026 to 2028, corresponding to aluminum prices of 21,500, 22,000, and 22,500 yuan per ton [3] - The industry is entering a phase of weak supply, high profits, and low capital expenditure, with companies showing increased willingness to distribute dividends, making it a resilient sector during weak consumption cycles [3]