经济阴云下的消费韧性：美国假日零售额预计首度突破万亿美元

Core Viewpoint - The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that despite economic uncertainties and rising prices, U.S. consumer spending during the holiday shopping season is expected to exceed last year's figures, with total spending projected between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, representing a growth of 3.7% to 4.2% compared to last year, marking the first holiday retail season in U.S. history to surpass $1 trillion in sales [1] Group 1 - NRF's holiday spending forecast is based on economic models that incorporate key indicators such as consumer spending, disposable income, employment rates, wage levels, inflation rates, and previously released monthly retail data [2] - Holiday spending accounts for 19% of annual retail sales, with consumer spending being a critical component, representing approximately 70% of the U.S. GDP [2] - The prediction comes amid the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which has hindered the release of employment and retail data [2] Group 2 - Other institutions' forecasts align with NRF's, indicating a slowdown in growth; Mastercard SpendingPulse predicts a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from November 1 to December 24, down from 4.1% last year, while Deloitte forecasts a growth of 2.9% to 3.4% for the same period [4] - Adobe anticipates that online sales during the holiday season will reach $253.4 billion, with a growth rate of 5.3%, lower than last year's 8.7% [4] Group 3 - Despite a decline in consumer confidence, U.S. consumer spending remains resilient, with a shift in consumer behavior towards seeking discounts and a decrease in dining out frequency [5] - The timing of the government shutdown is seen as a significant issue, leading to reduced private sector income and weakened consumer demand [5] - Analysts note an expanding gap between affluent and low-income households, with low-income household spending growing by 0.6% year-over-year in September, while high-income households saw a growth rate of 2.6% [6] Group 4 - Economic factors, including tariffs, are pushing up prices, making it more challenging for low-income families to maintain their livelihoods; U.S. Bank estimates that consumers bear 50% to 70% of the tariff costs, with expectations of this burden increasing [7] - Evidence suggests that tariffs have raised consumer inflation levels, and many companies have announced layoffs due to increased operational costs from tariffs, shifts in consumer spending patterns, corporate restructuring, and rising expenditures on artificial intelligence [8]