Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a significant economic divergence in the U.S. by 2025, with traditional industries like manufacturing and real estate facing pressures from tariffs and immigration policies, while the technology sector, driven by AI, experiences robust capital expenditure growth [1][2]. Economic Challenges - The U.S. economy will face two main challenges: supply-side pressures from tariff increases and a slowdown in population growth, which will impact labor supply and demand in housing and consumption sectors [2][3]. - The impact of tariffs on the economy is expected to continue into 2026, as companies that previously imported goods to avoid tariffs will see this buffer effect diminish, leading to increased supply cost pressures [2][3]. AI Investment Cycle - The contribution of AI to economic growth is becoming more apparent, primarily through substantial capital expenditures. However, as investment scales up, the marginal efficiency of capital is likely to decline, resulting in a slowdown of investment growth and a reduced impact on GDP growth in 2026 compared to 2025 [3][4]. - Other demand sectors are also expected to cool down, with the real estate market undergoing active destocking and construction investment declining after policy subsidies taper off [3]. Inflation Outlook - Inflation is anticipated to exhibit stickiness, with core goods still having room for price increases due to tariff impacts. Rent inflation is expected to continue its current slowdown, while non-rent service prices remain resilient due to structural demand and labor costs [3][4]. - Consumer inflation expectations may rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve its targets [3]. Policy Perspective - Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to marginally loosen, but the overall stimulative effect may be limited. The fiscal deficit expansion from Trump's "Great American Plan" will be partially offset by tariff revenues [4]. - The Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates due to a slowing job market, but will be cautious about significant easing due to persistent inflation concerns. A cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is projected for 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3%-3.25% [4]. Economic Growth Forecast - The forecast for U.S. real GDP growth in 2026 is 1.7%, with the first half of the year facing downward pressure from tariffs and immigration policies, while the second half may see improvement due to fiscal and monetary support [4]. - Upside risks include a potential easing of trade and geopolitical tensions, while downside risks stem from a weakening job market, increased volatility in AI profitability, and inflation pressures exceeding expectations [4].
中金：2026年美国通胀或表现出更高的粘性 财政与货币有望边际放松