【深度】全球存储芯片涨价潮席卷深圳：模组厂利润翻倍，代理商满仓囤货

Core Insights - The storage chip prices have surged over 70% in the past two months, outpacing gold price increases, leading to significant profit projections for companies like Chengbang Co., which anticipates a net profit of 30 million yuan, doubling initial estimates [1][2] - The global storage chip market is experiencing a price surge, particularly in DRAM and NAND components, with DRAM prices increasing by 171.8% year-on-year as of Q3 2025 [1][2] - The storage chip industry in Guangdong is primarily focused on mid-to-lower stream segments, with a concentration of companies in Shenzhen and Dongguan involved in design, packaging, and testing [1][4] Industry Dynamics - The storage chip sector has transitioned from a period of low demand and oversupply to a bullish market, referred to as the "milk and bread" phase [2] - Module manufacturers like Chengbang, Jincun, and Jiangbolong are experiencing a significant recovery in performance, with Chengbang reporting a 127.95% year-on-year increase in Q3 net profit [5][6] - The core business of module manufacturers involves packaging and testing storage chips, which are increasingly in demand for consumer electronics and AI applications [5][6] Price Trends and Market Behavior - The price increase is primarily driven by rising wafer costs, with major tech companies like OpenAI and Amazon securing supply, leading to reduced availability for consumer markets [7] - Short-term price volatility is expected to stabilize, but medium-term projections suggest a potential increase of 50% to 80% over the next year [7] - The market is witnessing significant stockpiling behavior among storage agents, with many holding large inventories in anticipation of further price increases [8][9] Impact on End Markets - The price hikes are affecting downstream consumer electronics manufacturers, who are beginning to feel the pressure of rising costs, particularly in low-margin products [12][13] - Companies are prioritizing supply to financially robust clients, while smaller brands face greater challenges due to rising component costs [12][13] - Consumers are already experiencing price increases in storage products, with some SSD prices rising over 30% in just two months [13] Long-term Outlook - Industry experts predict that the current storage chip market conditions could last for five to six years, marking the beginning of a new cycle driven by AI demand [14][15] - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the global storage market could reach $300 billion by 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory for the storage chip industry [14]