Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic sales have gradually surpassed the previous high point of 2017, and the resilience of continued growth needs to be observed, with expectations of stable domestic demand if there are still certain levels of central and local subsidies [1] - In the new energy sector, technological innovation and model iteration on the supply side are driving an increase in penetration rates, while facing a phase of pre-purchase tax policy withdrawal by the end of 2025, with expectations of double-digit growth in domestic new energy vehicle sales [1] Group 2 - For commercial vehicles, the growth space is opened up by overseas markets, with a focus on the trend of electric intelligence; the heavy truck scrapping and updating policy may continue in 2026, with domestic demand still supported, and export growth driven by strong demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with an industry total expected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 1.05-1.1 million units [1] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in domestic sales is expected to reach about 30% by 2026, with L2+ level assisted driving heavy trucks achieving a breakthrough from 0 to 1, with a penetration rate expected to reach single digits by 2026 [1] Group 3 - The auto parts industry may shift growth potential from domestic to overseas markets, with a focus on trends in obtaining orders for new energy vehicle components from European automakers by 2026 [2] - The humanoid robot sector is gradually entering the mass production stage, with leading and core assets emerging, while software iteration is a key focus for future development [3] - With the improvement of regulations in the intelligent driving industry, 2026 may mark the year of mass production for L3 vehicles, which is expected to drive continuous improvement in the penetration rate of the intelligent driving industry chain [3]
中金：乘用车内需面临一定挑战 关注全球格局再重构下的中国机遇
智通财经网·2025-11-07 01:28