南方基金：海外市场波动加剧！投资者如何应对扰动？

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 36th day, becoming the longest in history, with negative impacts on the economy and capital market expectations [3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown could reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4, resulting in an economic output loss of $7 billion to $14 billion [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have significantly shifted, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropping from 94% to 69% [3][5] Group 2 - A-shares have shown relative stability amid overseas market volatility, with major indices experiencing fluctuations but not panic selling [7] - Domestic policy expectations are clear, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and growth stabilization policies providing fundamental support for the market [7] - The valuation of A-shares is considered relatively reasonable, and recent market adjustments have provided a safety margin [7] Group 3 - The domestic consumption sector is gaining traction, with sectors like food and beverage and aviation expected to benefit from valuation recovery and profit improvement [7] - The importance of domestic demand is highlighted, especially in the context of ongoing consumption subsidy policies and income distribution reforms [7] - Defensive value in dividend-paying assets is being rediscovered, with sectors like banking and coal showing rotation performance amid increased market volatility [8] Group 4 - A "barbell strategy" is suggested for investors, combining growth-oriented assets with defensive dividend-paying assets to navigate market fluctuations [8]