降息预期对决政策分歧 金价决战4020生死线

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a bullish trend, with prices fluctuating around $4001 per ounce, indicating a potential upward movement after eight days of consolidation [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with a surprising decrease of 9,100 non-farm jobs in October, reversing the previous increase of 33,000 [2]. - Challenger companies reported a record high in layoffs, exceeding 153,000, marking a 175.3% year-on-year increase, the highest for this period since 2003 [2]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have surpassed 70%, reflecting growing concerns over economic conditions [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - There is a notable division among policymakers regarding the future of interest rates, with some expressing caution due to a lack of key inflation data caused by government shutdowns [2]. - The Chicago Fed President highlighted the uncertainty in economic visibility, while the Cleveland Fed President argued for tighter monetary policy due to persistent inflation [2]. Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - International gold is trading within a range of $3950 to $4020, with a delicate balance at the $4000 mark, which has resisted upward movements three times [3]. - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by mixed signals from U.S. economic data, is reinforcing the volatile nature of gold prices, with the market awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision to break the current stalemate [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for gold are identified between $4000 and $4015, with a defensive position suggested above $4020 [4]. - A target range for potential downward movement is set between $3970 and $3930, with a focus on monitoring market dynamics during Asian and European trading sessions [4].