Group 1 - The US dollar index fell below 100, with a decline of 0.3% to 99.771 after failing to break through 100.360, indicating a cautious risk sentiment due to rising layoff announcements and declining US Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield dropped over 6 basis points to 4.089%, while the 2-year and 30-year yields fell to 3.566% and 4.686%, respectively, reflecting a response to the deteriorating labor market outlook [1] - The implied probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December increased from 62% to 69%, reversing some hawkish repricing that occurred after the Fed's November statement [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis of the US dollar index indicates a confirmed reversal below the 200-day moving average, which has significantly changed market sentiment towards the dollar [2] - If the current selling pressure continues, the dollar index may test the support level at 99.463, which is the last line of defense before the 50-day moving average at 99.359 [2] - Downside risks remain high due to weak labor data, declining yields, and strong performance in currency crosses, unless new data or comments from the Federal Reserve alter expectations [2]
美联储降息概率上升 美元承压回调扩大
Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-07 02:32