Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-07 02:45Core Insights - The stock market this year has been primarily driven by sentiment, capital, and valuation, with a shift in market perception and narrative influencing trends. There is an expectation for a transition to performance verification in the coming year [1] - The bond market has experienced a correction from excessive gains at the beginning of the year, and it is anticipated to return to a fundamental logic next year, focusing on nominal GDP, financing demand, and the stock-bond valuation ratio [1] - A significant point to note is that next year will see a large amount of medium- to long-term deposits maturing, which may lead to a reallocation of funds that could benefit the stock market [1] Market Trends - Short-term predictions suggest that the stock market may undergo a period of consolidation, while the bond market has a slightly higher probability of success but with average returns. However, in the first quarter of next year, the likelihood of stocks outperforming bonds remains high [1] - The bond market faces primary pressures from improved fundamental expectations, adjustments in institutional behavior, and the stock-bond valuation ratio. Despite this, the supportive stance of monetary policy and the need for recovery in financing demand limit the potential for interest rate increases, leading to an overall slightly weaker and more volatile market outlook [1]