澳元失守关键位 徘徊三周低位附近

Core Insights - The Australian dollar (AUD) is hovering near a three-week low against the US dollar (USD) at 0.6478, impacted by heightened tensions in AI trade between the US and China, alongside a recovery in global tech stock sell-offs, which dampens risk-sensitive AUD demand while boosting safe-haven USD appeal [1] - Australia's economic performance is better than many expected, with October PMIs showing mixed results: manufacturing dropped below 50 to 49.7 (from 51.4), while services slightly increased to 53.1 (from 52.4) [1] - Retail sales grew by 1.2% in June, and the trade surplus surged to AUD 3.938 billion in September, indicating some economic vitality despite a cooling labor market, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% in September (from 4.3%) and job growth slowing to 14.9K [1] - The USD index is experiencing a correction after a strong rebound, with market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December rapidly diminishing, which may limit the downside for the USD [1] Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for AUD/USD has deteriorated, with the critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6450 being challenged, and a breach could lead to testing support levels at 0.6440 (October 14), 0.6414 (August 21), and 0.6372 (June 23) [3] - Momentum indicators remain bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking below 40, suggesting potential further losses, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) above 16 indicates a lack of strong trend [3] Market Sentiment - The US government's prolonged shutdown, now officially the longest on record, is maintaining heightened risk sentiment with little sign of breakthrough [2]