Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin price will hit $1m by 2028 unless politicians ‘don’t want to be re-elected’

Core Viewpoint - Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028, with Ethereum peaking at $20,000, driven by inflationary pressures and increased government debt issuance [1][2]. Group 1: Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Predictions - Bitcoin is currently trading at $103,000, which is nearly 19% lower than its all-time high of $126,000 in October [2]. - Ethereum is trading at $3,340, representing a 32% decrease from its record high in August [2]. - Hayes believes that the upcoming US presidential election will coincide with the peak prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum [1]. Group 2: Government Debt and Inflation - Hayes argues that governments will prefer to issue debt rather than raise taxes to fund expenses, as raising taxes is politically unpopular [3]. - The increase in government debt will lead to a rise in the fiat money supply, which Hayes refers to as pressing "the brrr button" [4]. - This increase in money supply is expected to result in higher inflation, regardless of government-manipulated inflation statistics [4]. Group 3: Bitcoin as an Investment Hedge - Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against inflationary policies, similar to traditional investments like bonds, equities, or real estate [5]. - Hayes emphasizes that investors inherently understand the implications of inflation and choose different assets to mitigate its effects [5]. - The current US national debt stands at $38 trillion, the highest since the pandemic, which further supports the case for Bitcoin as a protective asset [5]. Group 4: Political Implications on Debt Issuance - Hayes suggests there is a slim chance that politicians will cease issuing debt, as doing so would likely lead to significant deflation [6]. - He warns that if the government opts for tax increases instead of debt issuance, it could trigger a deflationary crisis not seen since the 1930s [6].