刘元春：“十五五”居民消费率明显提高，需要7大组合式政策

Core Viewpoint - The low consumption rate in China is a significant issue that requires a clear understanding for effective policy design, as highlighted by Liu Yuanchun during the forum on boosting consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Current Consumption Rate Analysis - In 2020, China's resident consumption rate was 38.8%, which is lower than several countries with similar GDP per capita, such as Argentina (63%), Poland (53.6%), and the USA (68%) [1]. - The final consumption expenditure accounted for 54.3% of China's GDP in 2020, while developed countries typically see this figure around 80% [3]. - The average annual growth rate of resident consumption in China from 2000 to 2019 was 8.24%, significantly higher than the USA (2.36%) and the Eurozone (1.09%) [4]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Low Consumption Rate - The low consumption rate does not equate to insufficient consumption, as China's contribution of final consumption to GDP is not low [4]. - The government consumption in China is relatively high compared to low resident consumption, indicating a structural imbalance [6]. - The share of service consumption in China is only about 25%, which is considerably lower than in other countries [7]. Group 3: Core Reasons for Low Consumption Rate - The low consumption rate is not merely a short-term issue; it is influenced by multiple factors, including a low marginal propensity to consume and a high Gini coefficient [8]. - In the initial distribution of national income, the share of the resident sector in China is 60.6%, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the world average [8]. - Insufficient and uneven government transfer payments and social security spending contribute to suppressed consumption [8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Boosting Consumption - To address the low consumption rate, the focus should shift from short-term consumption policies to structural reforms in government functions and state-owned enterprises [9]. - Liu Yuanchun emphasizes the need for a combination of policies to stimulate consumption, including addressing short-term consumption shortages and measuring the consumption gap accurately [11][12]. - The estimated average consumption gap from 2020 to 2024 is 6% annually, requiring approximately 2.9 trillion yuan in short-term consumption to fill this gap [12].