CINNO Research：短期内外需求同步走弱 预计11月面板价格将开启下行通道

Group 1 - The overall demand for panels is expected to decline in Q4, with manufacturers stabilizing mainstream size prices through coordinated production control [1] - The impact of domestic subsidy policies on the market is limited, and the easing of US-China tariff tensions may slow down the pre-stocking pace, leading to further weakening of short-term demand [1] - Panel prices are anticipated to enter a downward channel in November due to multiple factors, including the inability to maintain a unified production control rhythm among manufacturers [1] Group 2 - In October, as pre-stocking neared completion, order volumes gradually decreased, resulting in a 7.8% month-on-month decline in LCD TV panel shipments [2] - Major panel manufacturers responded quickly by controlling production capacity, maintaining an average utilization rate of around 75% for high-generation lines [2] - The average utilization rate is expected to remain around 80% in Q4, leading to ongoing supply-demand dynamics despite efforts to stabilize prices [2] Group 3 - In November, the overall demand for LCD TV panels is expected to weaken, with most panel sizes entering a general price decline [2] - Specific price forecasts for November indicate that 32" and 43" panel prices are expected to remain stable at $32 and $64 respectively, while mainstream sizes from 50" to 85" are projected to decline by $2 [2] - Ultra-large size panels (98"/100") are expected to see significant price drops, projected to decrease by $10 to around $440 [2][3]