成本端有一定支撑 锰硅期货市场继续下行空间有限

Market Overview - As of November 6, the number of manganese silicon futures warehouse receipts recorded 12,758, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. However, there was a cumulative increase of 4,658 receipts over the past week, representing a growth rate of 57.51%. In contrast, there was a cumulative decrease of 42,103 receipts over the past month, indicating a decline of 76.74% [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the Yunnan production area, the official entry into the dry season has led to a significant increase in electricity costs from 0.37 yuan/kWh during the wet season to 0.5 yuan/kWh. Additionally, six silicon manganese thermal furnaces have been shut down for maintenance since October 31, while three furnaces are operating at reduced capacity, collectively affecting daily output by 880 tons [1]. - According to recent data, the latest bidding price for silicon manganese alloy from a steel mill in East China is 5,798 yuan/ton, including tax and discounts [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, despite a reduction in production in the main manganese silicon production areas last week, overall output remains relatively stable. The demand from sample steel mills is still at a relatively low level, with limited willingness to sell at low prices. The cost side remains firm, with a slight decrease in manganese ore shipments, and miners are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices. Inventory pressure is evident, with 63 sample enterprises accumulating stock exceeding 300,000 tons, reaching a peak not seen since April 2024. Overall, market sentiment has been somewhat boosted, but the fundamental driving force remains limited, necessitating ongoing attention to market sentiment changes, with expectations of a predominantly volatile market in the short term [3]. - Guoxin Futures notes that the manganese silicon industry chain is characterized by overall overcapacity and the introduction of new production capacity, alongside relatively loose manganese ore supply and low steel demand, leading to a predominantly weak supply-demand dynamic. However, with manganese silicon prices at low levels and production profits being poor, there is limited room for further market decline. The recent rise in coal prices suggests a potential for a moderate bullish outlook on manganese silicon [4].