2028年石化需求有望复苏

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical market is expected to experience a strong recovery in the medium term, despite current pressures from oversupply and shrinking profits. Demand is projected to rebound around 2027-2028 [1] Industry Summary - The current petrochemical market is facing an oversupply situation, which is putting pressure on the profitability of the polyethylene and aromatics value chains [1] - Since 2020, nearly 35 million tons of new ethylene capacity has been added globally, primarily concentrated in China and the United States [1] - Current operating rates for major petrochemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, and styrene monomer are around 70%, while the historical normal level is 85%-90% [1] - This low operating rate is expected to persist until 2026, but the current downturn is viewed as a "cyclical adjustment" rather than a structural decline [1] Future Outlook - Demand growth is anticipated to exceed the growth of new supply by 2027 and 2028, particularly as China's self-sufficiency stabilizes and consumption in Southeast Asia accelerates [1] - As capacity optimization is gradually implemented and inventory levels normalize, operating rates for petrochemical products are expected to recover, starting with polyvinyl chloride (PVC), followed by polypropylene and polyethylene [1] - In Northeast Asia, countries like South Korea, China, and Japan are advancing the integration of cracking facilities and capacity optimization efforts [1]