11月份产地进入减产季 棕榈油期货高位震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the main contract reported at 8688.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a minor increase of 0.32% [1] Group 1: Market Data - As of October 31, domestic palm oil inventory stands at 592,800 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.36% but a year-on-year increase of 17.29% [2] - Data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) indicates that from November 1-5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 5.12% compared to the previous month, with an oil extraction rate up by 0.32% and production rising by 6.80% [2] - BMI forecasts a 1.8% growth in global palm oil production for the 2025/26 fiscal year, reaching 80.1 million tons, with Indonesia's output expected to rise by 3.3% to 47.5 million tons [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures notes that macroeconomic factors, including a record high in U.S. layoffs and fluctuating U.S. Treasury yields, are influencing market conditions, with palm oil prices expected to face weak fluctuations in the short term [3] - Ningzheng Futures highlights that the expectation of reduced production in November supports palm oil prices, while the domestic soybean-palm oil price gap is rapidly correcting, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of palm oil and boosting demand [3] - Despite the supportive factors, the near-term fundamentals continue to exert pressure, leading to profit-taking by short positions and a bottom adjustment in palm oil prices [3]