Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing notable gains, with tin futures showing slight upward movement amid cautious macroeconomic conditions [1] Macroeconomic Environment - Recent mixed economic data from the United States suggests ongoing speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, while concerns are rising due to the federal government shutdown exceeding 30 days [1] Supply Side - The smelting operating rate has significantly increased by 21.3% to reach 71.61%, marking a new high for the year, despite a slight decrease of 2.89% last week to 68.72%, which remains at an absolute high level [1] - There is ongoing attention on the production of tin from Myanmar's Wa State, with expectations of substantial output in November, indicating a trend of recovering tin supply [1] Demand Side - Traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and tinplate are showing signs of weakness, but emerging fields like new energy vehicles and AI servers are expected to provide long-term demand support for tin prices [1] - In October, domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery in operating rates, with downstream companies primarily engaging in stock replenishment at lower prices [1] Market Outlook - Short-term supply-side raw material issues are expected to remain challenging, with tin prices predicted to maintain high-level fluctuations, and support forecasted around 276,000 yuan per ton [1] - For those not yet invested, it is advised to continue observing the market, while existing investors may hold their positions [1]
当前整体宏观氛围偏谨慎 沪锡期货维持高位震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-07 07:08