Bitcoin Bounces Back: Can Bullish Momentum Hold or Has the Market Topped?

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop, briefly falling below $100,000 for the first time since May, but has since shown signs of recovery with a current trading price of $103,824 [1][5] - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has bounced back to $3.5 trillion, reflecting a 3.5% gain in the past 24 hours [2] - The recent market activity has resulted in over $2 billion in liquidations, primarily from long positions, marking one of the largest flush-outs of leveraged positions this year [1][2] Market Context - Traditional markets are mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.7% and 0.9% respectively, while the ongoing U.S. government shutdown adds uncertainty to economic data and policy decisions [3] - Despite negative sentiment on social media, there is a marginally bullish outlook for Bitcoin, with a 67% chance predicted for it to return to $115,000 rather than dropping to $85,000 [4] Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin is at 38, indicating oversold conditions and suggesting that selling pressure is waning [6][7] - The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 20.33, indicating a lack of strong trend conviction in the market [7]