智通财经网·2025-11-07 07:50Core Viewpoint - UBS has set a target price of HKD 24 for MTR Corporation (00066) and assigned a "Sell" rating, reflecting concerns over the company's long-term prospects despite a positive short-term reaction to a recent tender result [1] Group 1: Project Details - MTR Corporation announced that the contract for the first phase of the Tuen Mun Area 16 property development project has been awarded to Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) [1] - The total gross floor area of the project is 601,000 square feet, expected to provide approximately 1,280 residential units [1] - The total investment for the project is estimated at HKD 6 billion, translating to a land price of about HKD 9,983 per square foot [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Assuming the average selling price reaches the current level of similar projects in the area, specifically HKD 12,750 per square foot, the overall development gross margin is projected to be around 22% [1] - After profit sharing with MTR, the actual development profit margin for Sun Hung Kai is estimated to be about 15% [1] - The overall land cost is estimated at HKD 4,300 per square foot, which is 12% higher than the price paid by Sino Land (00083) for a similar project in August, but 23% lower than previous estimates [1] Group 3: Market Reaction and Long-term Outlook - UBS anticipates a positive market reaction to the tender results for MTR Corporation's stock [1] - However, the firm remains cautious about the company's long-term outlook due to significant capital expenditure requirements from new railway projects and rising interest expenses [1] - The attractiveness of MTR's land reserves outside the Tuen Mun South Line, such as Tung Chung East, Siu Ho Wan, and North District, is considered low [1]