2024年美国生物燃料产能增速放缓

Core Insights - The U.S. biofuel production capacity is expected to grow slowly, with only a 3% increase from early 2024 to early 2025, primarily due to a significant decline in the capacity growth of renewable diesel and other biofuels [1] - The annual production capacity of renewable diesel and other biofuels in the U.S. will only increase by 391 million gallons in 2024, which is less than one-third of the increases seen in 2022 and 2023 [1] - The expansion of the Rodeo refinery by Phillips 66 and the new facility by Renewable Fuels LLC in Bakersfield are the only two new capacity additions, with the Rodeo facility becoming the second-largest renewable diesel plant in the U.S. after its upgrade [1] Group 1 - The capacity growth from the Rodeo and Bakersfield facilities is offset by the closure of four other plants, which reflects the changing profitability dynamics between biofuels and petroleum refining since 2020 [2] - The closures include Monroe Energy's facility in Pennsylvania, Chevron's in California, and Vertex Energy and Jaxon Energy's plants in Alabama and Mississippi, respectively [2] - The decline in biofuel profitability and the rise in petroleum refining margins have led to a slowdown in renewable diesel capacity investments in the coming years [2] Group 2 - There is an increasing focus on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in 2024, which is categorized under "other biofuels" and serves as a substitute for petroleum aviation fuel [3] - The Rodeo facility can convert approximately 150 million gallons per year of renewable diesel capacity to SAF, while the Diamond Green Diesel facility can convert about 235 million gallons per year [3] - Despite the decline in biodiesel capacity due to low profitability, ethanol production capacity is rising, currently accounting for 73% of total U.S. biofuel capacity, mainly driven by stable domestic consumption and increased exports [3]