Emerson Electric’s Outlook Was a ‘Proper Disappointment.’ The Stock Drops.

Core Viewpoint - Emerson Electric's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings met expectations, but the guidance for fiscal year 2026 disappointed investors, leading to a 3.9% drop in stock price [3][6][7]. Financial Performance - For the September quarter, Emerson reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.62, an increase from $1.48 a year earlier, and sales of $4.85 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth [3][4]. - The fiscal year 2026 guidance anticipates total sales growth of about 5.5%, implying revenue of approximately $19 billion, which is below Wall Street projections [4][6]. Market Conditions - The manufacturing sector continues to face challenges, with the Purchasing Managers Index at 48.7 for October, indicating contraction [6][9]. - Orders increased by 6% year over year, which is a positive sign, but this growth has not yet translated into sales growth [8]. Regional Performance - North American business performance was satisfactory, while there were weaknesses noted in China and Europe [7]. Analyst Insights - Analysts expressed disappointment with the guidance, particularly in control systems and software, which are expected to decline in the first half of 2026 [6][7]. - There is a possibility that conservative guidance may benefit investors, as past forecasts have been conservative compared to actual earnings [8].