小摩:核心偿付能力比率下降或影响内险股股息 偏好中国人寿(02628)及中国平安(02318)
智通财经网·2025-11-07 09:06

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports a decline in the core solvency ratio of several domestic insurance companies in Q3, averaging a decrease of 9 percentage points [1] - The rebound in mainland bond yields negatively impacts the solvency of multiple insurance firms, although strong profits and reserve growth help mitigate this effect [1] - The report favors China Life (02628) for its strong profitability and conservative capital management, and also prefers Ping An (02318) due to its leading forecasted dividend yield of 6% for next year [1] Industry Summary - Major life insurance companies in mainland China saw a 16 percentage point drop in their core solvency ratio in Q3, while non-life insurance companies experienced a 3 percentage point increase [1] - Insurance management teams are implementing various measures in response, including issuing perpetual bonds, reducing equity risk exposure, and broadly decreasing non-standard asset balances [1] - Despite strong profit growth for major insurance companies in the first three quarters, the volatility in solvency capital may become a significant offset to year-end dividend forecasts, particularly for small and medium-sized life insurance companies [1]