Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-07 09:06Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that infrastructure is likely to continue being a key stabilizer for the Chinese economy, but expects growth to be more structural rather than broad-based due to the large base [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Growth - UBS anticipates that infrastructure growth will be more structural, especially as the real estate sector has not yet recovered and debt restructuring will take time to show effects [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, infrastructure development should closely align with national priorities, focusing on key areas such as railways, water conservancy, transportation (especially cost-effective logistics), energy, and urban infrastructure [1] Group 2: State-Owned Enterprises - UBS expects leading state-owned enterprises, which have a wide business scope and high revenue base, to face greater pressure on income and profit margins due to the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [1] - UBS has downgraded the profit forecasts for state-owned contractors from 2025 to 2027, reflecting lower-than-expected earnings for 2025 and outlook for 2026 [1] Group 3: Government Support and Fiscal Policy - UBS predicts that public sector funding, particularly from the central government, will provide stronger support in 2026 compared to 2025, despite ongoing debt restructuring efforts [1] - Moderate fiscal expansion is expected to increase inflows into the infrastructure sector, aligning with the government's priorities [1] Group 4: Market Adjustments - UBS has raised the target price-to-earnings ratio based on higher expected earnings per share growth, primarily reflecting this year's lower earnings [1]