冲高回落后又冲高，金价后市到底怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in gold prices is influenced by various factors, including the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, potential Supreme Court rulings on tariffs, a weakening dollar, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. government shutdown has reached its 37th day, potentially causing irreversible damage to the economy and increasing market panic, which supports gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [1]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs could lead to significant financial implications, including a potential refund wave that may weaken government finances and boost gold prices [1]. - A significant increase in U.S. layoffs, with 153,074 announced in October, has caused the dollar to drop from a four-month high, making gold more attractive to international investors [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, up from 62% the previous day, which could further support gold prices [2]. - Many of the influencing factors are still based on expectations rather than confirmed events, contributing to a lack of momentum in gold price increases [2]. Group 3: Trading Methods for Gold - Three primary methods for trading gold include physical gold transactions, paper gold trading, and gold derivatives trading [3][4][5][6]. - Physical gold trading is suitable for conservative investors but involves higher holding costs and lower liquidity [4]. - Paper gold trading offers flexibility and lower costs, making it suitable for short-term operations, but lacks the physical ownership aspect [5]. - Gold derivatives trading, such as futures and options, allows for leveraged trading but carries high risks and is suited for aggressive investors [7].