【机构观债】10月信用债交易热度下降 信用利差收窄可能性降低

Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of credit bonds decreased in October, influenced by holiday effects and interest rate volatility expectations, while the overall bond market faces increasing adjustment pressure [1][6]. Trading Volume Summary - The total trading volume in the secondary bond market for October was 29,720.106 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.32% but a month-on-month decrease of 20.21% [1]. - In terms of bond types, the trading volume for interest rate bonds was 18,855.627 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.22% but a month-on-month decrease of 19.40%. The trading volume for credit bonds was 6,150.889 billion, with year-on-year and month-on-month decreases of 18.70% and 22.69%, respectively [3]. Credit Bond Characteristics - The trading characteristics of industrial bonds showed a shift towards high-grade and medium-short term bonds, while urban investment bonds remained relatively stable. The trading volume of industrial bonds decreased by 26.62% month-on-month, which was greater than the 16.89% decrease in urban investment bonds [3]. - The proportion of AAA-rated bonds in industrial bond transactions increased significantly to 56.18%, indicating a stronger preference for credit quality among investors [3]. Credit Spread Analysis - As of the end of October, the credit spread continued to compress, settling at 36.74 basis points, narrowing by 43.22 basis points year-on-year and slightly by 5.01 basis points month-on-month [4]. - The overall market liquidity remained stable, with the yield on government bonds showing a slight decline. The yield on credit bonds initially maintained the previous month's level but later decreased significantly, leading to an overall narrowing of credit spreads [4]. Urban Investment Bond Trends - Urban investment bonds exhibited a trend of narrowing credit spreads with significant regional differentiation. Most provinces saw a continued decline in credit spreads, while some, such as Xinjiang, Hainan, and Yunnan, experienced increases exceeding 10 basis points [5]. - In regions with notable debt pressure, such as Guizhou, Yunnan, and Gansu, the regional credit risks have been effectively mitigated due to strong policy support [5]. Future Market Outlook - The overall bond market is expected to face increasing adjustment pressure, with the likelihood of further compression in credit spreads diminishing. The central bank's actions, such as restarting government bond trading, may elevate the benchmark interest rate [6]. - After a period of contraction to historically low levels, the credit spreads lack the momentum for significant further compression, with future narrowing dependent on stronger economic recovery or more relaxed liquidity conditions [6].