美国首个万亿美元级别的购物季，通胀魔咒下购物热情仍高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite inflation concerns, U.S. holiday shopping spending is expected to exceed $1 trillion in November and December, showing growth compared to last year [1][2] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that last year's holiday sales reached $976 billion, a 4.3% increase year-over-year, with this year's expected spending projected between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, reflecting a growth of 3.7% to 4.2% [1][2] - NRF's CEO Matthew Shay noted that consumer behavior is surprisingly positive, although consumers are becoming more selective and focused on discounts [1][2] Group 2 - Holiday spending accounts for 19% of total U.S. retail sales, with some retailers relying even more heavily on this period [2] - Various institutions have made predictions regarding retail growth, with Mastercard forecasting a 3.6% increase in retail sales during the holiday season, slightly lower than last year's 4.1% [2] - Deloitte predicts a year-over-year growth of 2.9% to 3.4% for holiday retail sales, while Adobe anticipates online sales to reach $253.4 billion, a 5.3% increase, but lower than last year's 8.7% [2] Group 3 - The timing of the U.S. government shutdown is seen as detrimental, leading to a decline in private sector income and weakening consumer demand [3] - Bank of America warns that tariffs are diminishing U.S. consumer purchasing power, estimating that consumers bear 50% to 70% of the tariff costs, which are expected to continue rising [3]