稀有金属：出口管制暂缓稀土有望涨价 储能高景气支撑锂价

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that the rare metals sector is returning to fundamentals following the easing of US-China trade tensions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific metals like rare earths, tungsten, and antimony showing varied performance [1] - Rare earths are expected to see price increases due to a temporary suspension of export controls by China, which is anticipated to boost procurement willingness among downstream manufacturers [1] - The current price of rare earths is within an acceptable range for both upstream and downstream players, and strict supply controls remain in place, suggesting that demand recovery will be a key driver for price increases [1] Group 2 - Lithium prices have risen due to strong demand in the energy storage market, which is experiencing unprecedented growth, supported by new capacity pricing policies [2] - By the end of September 2025, China's new energy storage capacity is projected to exceed 100 million kilowatts, representing a more than 30-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, making China the world's largest market [2] - Cobalt prices have increased to around 400,000 yuan per ton, influenced by supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has announced a suspension of cobalt exports [2]