Xi Niu Cai Jing·2025-11-07 12:19Core Insights - The third quarter of this year marks the only quarter in the past five years to experience a sequential decline in sales [3] - The overall TV retail volume in Q3 was 6.15 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, while retail revenue fell by 8.1% to 25.2 billion yuan [4] Market Dynamics - The dual decline in sales is largely attributed to the demand being pulled forward by last year's national subsidy policy, which has led to a natural market adjustment cycle [8] - The rapid consumption of the national subsidy fund, with 162 billion yuan allocated by May, has restricted consumer purchasing flexibility, as funds are now distributed more precisely [8] - The expansion of subsidy categories from 8 to 12 has diverted funds away from traditional categories like TVs, further reducing available subsidies for these products [8] Consumer Trends - Despite an overall decline in TV sales, retail revenue saw a slight increase of 5.1%, indicating a trend towards higher-end products as consumers prefer larger and more advanced models [9] - Mid-tier brands are struggling in this environment, with second-tier brands like Changhong, Haier, and Konka experiencing a combined shipment decline of 12.2%, exceeding the industry average [10] Company Performance - Konka reported a net profit loss of 383 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of only 3.23% in its consumer electronics business, indicating severe profitability challenges [13] - Changhong's TV business revenue decreased by approximately 2.11% to 7.054 billion yuan, with a significant portion of its sales attributed to OEM production for brands like Xiaomi and Huawei [18] - Haier's TV division has struggled to replicate its success in major appliances, facing challenges in brand positioning and market focus, leading to a lack of competitive advantage [21] Competitive Landscape - The top brands, including Hisense, TCL, Xiaomi, and Skyworth, also faced pressure, with a combined shipment decline of over 8% in Q3 [22] - The market is witnessing a "price war" phenomenon, particularly during promotional events, with significant price reductions across various TV sizes [22] - The market is increasingly polarized, with leading brands maintaining a larger market share while mid-tier brands face existential challenges [22][23] Future Outlook - The ongoing market contraction suggests that the TV industry may face a prolonged period of difficulty, with a potential acceleration in the elimination of struggling mid-tier brands [24]