Barnes (US:B) ZACKS·2025-11-07 14:16Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation's shares have increased by 41% in the last three months, driven by record gold prices amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1][16] Group 1: Stock Performance - Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 19.1% and the S&P 500's rise of 8.9% in the same period [2] - The stock broke above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on May 30, 2025, and is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend [5] Group 2: Growth Projects - Barrick is advancing key growth projects, including Goldrush, Pueblo Viejo plant expansion, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit, and Reko Diq, which are expected to significantly boost production [9] - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028, while the Reko Diq project is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second phase [10] Group 3: Financial Position - Barrick has a strong liquidity position with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $4.8 billion and generated operating cash flows of around $1.3 billion in the second quarter, a 15% year-over-year increase [12] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases, with a new share repurchase program authorized for up to $1 billion [13] Group 4: Gold Prices and Profitability - Gold prices have surged approximately 52% this year, reaching over $4,000 per ton, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases [16] - Higher gold prices are expected to enhance Barrick's profit margins and free cash flow generation [14] Group 5: Cost Challenges - Barrick faces challenges from rising production costs, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by around 17% and 12% year-over-year, respectively [18] - For 2025, Barrick projects total cash costs per ounce of $1,050-$1,130 and AISC in the range of $1,460-$1,560, indicating a year-over-year increase [19] Group 6: Production Outlook - The company expects attributable gold production of 3.15-3.5 million ounces for full-year 2025, a decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024, primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine [20] Group 7: Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 indicating year-over-year increases of 69.8% and 36.2%, respectively [21] Group 8: Valuation - Barrick's stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 11.7X, which is a discount to the industry's average of 12.35X [23]