ASLE Q3 Deep Dive: Absence of Whole Asset Sales and Market Volatility Shape Results

Core Insights - AerSale (NASDAQ: ASLE) reported Q3 CY2025 revenue of $71.19 million, falling short of analyst expectations of $102.4 million, representing a 13.9% year-on-year decline and a 30.5% miss [6] - The company's non-GAAP profit was $0.04 per share, significantly below the consensus estimate of $0.18, marking a 77.1% miss [6] - Management attributed the revenue shortfall primarily to the absence of engine or aircraft sales, which were five in the same quarter last year [3][7] Financial Performance - Revenue: $71.19 million vs analyst estimates of $102.4 million (13.9% year-on-year decline, 30.5% miss) [6] - Adjusted EPS: $0.04 vs analyst expectations of $0.18 (77.1% miss) [6] - Adjusted EBITDA: $9.48 million vs analyst estimates of $14.92 million (13.3% margin, 36.5% miss) [6] - Operating Margin: 4%, up from 2.4% in the same quarter last year [6] - Market Capitalization: $329.8 million [6] Operational Highlights - The decline in revenue was entirely driven by the lack of whole asset sales, with management noting that these transactions are unpredictable and can significantly impact short-term results [7] - Leasing and used serviceable materials (USM) activity grew robustly, with an 18.5% increase in the balance of the business, supported by disciplined feedstock acquisitions [7] - The Roswell facility shifted focus toward higher-margin teardown and decommissioning work, contributing to margin improvements [7] Future Outlook - AerSale's outlook focuses on expanding its recurring revenue base and launching new operational capacity, with expectations for revenue growth into 2026 [4] - Completion of new Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facility expansions is anticipated to drive significant revenue growth in 2026 and beyond [4][7] - Deliveries of AerSafe, a safety solution required to meet FAA directives, are expected to remain strong through 2026, with a reported backlog of $22 million [8]