Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-07 15:27Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, with prices oscillating within a narrow range of 1080-1120, while inventory levels have shown a decline over the past two weeks, raising questions about a potential rebound in the glass market [1][3]. Market Review - Since late October, glass futures have mostly traded within the 1080-1120 range, indicating limited upward or downward movement. As of November 7, prices are again in a narrow consolidation phase [1]. - The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises remains high at 63.136 million heavy boxes, despite a week-on-week decrease of 2.654 million heavy boxes, representing a decline of 4.03%. However, this figure is still up 29.05% year-on-year [3][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The glass market is characterized by a fierce battle between supply and demand. High inventory levels on the supply side and weak demand are suppressing price rebounds, while cost support and production line upgrades provide some bottom support [3]. - From January to September, the area of completed real estate projects in China decreased by 15.3%, and the average order days for deep processing were only 10.8 days, leading some companies to face a "no orders" situation [3]. Cost Support - Despite a decline in spot prices, the profit margins for the float glass industry remain within an acceptable range, with current profit levels at the median for the year. However, if profits continue to decline, cost support may gradually become more significant [4]. - As of November 6, the gross profit for float glass production using coal as fuel is 78.1 yuan/ton, while using petroleum coke and natural gas results in negative margins of -1.77 yuan/ton and -172.7 yuan/ton, respectively [4]. - The recent "coal-to-gas" initiative in the Shihezi area has garnered market attention, potentially leading to short-term supply reductions and increased production costs by 80-100 yuan/ton due to fuel price differences [4]. Inventory Trends - The recent two-week decline in glass enterprise inventories has provided some positive signals, with total inventory dropping to 63.136 million heavy boxes as of November 6. However, this decline may merely reflect a transfer of inventory from enterprises to social stock rather than a genuine improvement in end-user demand [7]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the ongoing struggle between high inventory and cost support is expected to continue, with the 1080-1120 yuan/ton range likely to persist. Traders may consider a high-sell low-buy strategy while monitoring potential breakout points [9]. - Future breakthroughs in glass futures may arise from either a contraction in supply or a substantial improvement in demand, particularly in the real estate sector, which remains in a bottoming cycle [9][12].