【专家看市】下周煤价能否继续上涨？

Group 1 - The coal market is experiencing a slight rebound after a phase of inventory replenishment during the winter storage period, with prices showing a narrow upward trend, breaking through 772 yuan/ton and aiming for 850 yuan/ton [1] - The supply side continues to contract while demand support strengthens, leading to a shift from a previously loose supply-demand situation to a slightly tight one, with port and power plant inventories lower than the same period last year [1][2] - The market is characterized by rational purchasing behavior from buyers, maintaining just-in-time procurement, while supply increases are relatively slow, contributing to a rising price trend [2] Group 2 - The coal price at ports has seen a significant increase, with daily price rises reaching up to 10 yuan/ton, driven by improved transportation and increased demand from power plants [3] - The restoration of certain freight discounts by the railway and the end of maintenance on the Daqin line have led to a recovery in railway capacity, boosting port inflow [3][4] - The upcoming winter heating season is expected to further release downstream storage demand, with power plants in northern regions increasing procurement activity [4] Group 3 - The overall supply of coal will remain constrained due to safety inspections and production assessments, while the demand for electricity is expected to steadily grow as the heating season approaches [4][5] - Despite a slight decrease in daily consumption at coastal power plants, the expectation of a cold winter and the need for inventory optimization will keep procurement activities ongoing [5] - The market is likely to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand, with coal prices expected to show a steady upward trend in the short term due to high transportation costs and strong demand [4][5]