Frank Talk: Stocks have history on their side heading into year-end

Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is projected to cost the U.S. economy up to $14 billion, equivalent to a 2 percentage point hit to GDP [2] - U.S. businesses and consumers are facing an average tariff rate of 18%, the highest in about 90 years, leading to an estimated income loss of around $1,800 per household this year [3] - Consumers are shouldering most of the tariffs, with American households responsible for about 55% of the new levies [4] Consumer Spending Trends - Record spending on Halloween is anticipated, with Americans expected to spend $13.1 billion this year, up from $11.6 billion last year [5] - Preliminary data suggests U.S. households will spend 4% less on gifts and 12% less on other items for Christmas compared to last year due to tariffs [6] Cocoa Market Dynamics - Cocoa prices have spiked due to plant disease and drought in West Africa, with futures prices reaching as high as $12,000 per metric ton [6] - Major chocolatiers have announced higher prices for chocolate products and have reformulated recipes to reduce cocoa content [7][8] - European chocolate manufacturers are expected to see a decline in operating margins this year due to increased competition and reduced demand for cocoa-containing products [10] Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - The S&P 500 has spent over 125 trading sessions above its 50-day moving average, the longest stretch since 2011, driven by enthusiasm over artificial intelligence [12] - Historical data suggests that stocks tend to outperform from November to April, with an average return of 7% during this period since 1945 [13] - If the S&P 500 is up more than 15% year-to-date by the end of October, stocks have finished higher in November and December 95% of the time [14]