China’s market and production trends showing resilience

Market Performance - China's light vehicle (LV) market showed resilience in September 2025, with total sales reaching approximately 2.5 million units, reflecting an 11% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1] - The passenger vehicle (PV) segment contributed significantly, growing by 10% YoY to 2.3 million units [1] - Light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales surged by 23% YoY, amounting to 216,000 units [2] Year-to-Date Trends - On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the LV market maintained a 12% expansion in volumes from January to September compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The overall Light Truck market posted a 2.5% YoY increase, driven by the rapid electrification of the Commercial Vehicle sector [2] Production Insights - China's LV production reached 3.2 million units in September, marking a solid YoY increase of 15.1% [3] - Passenger vehicles accounted for 90% of total output, rising by 14.7% YoY to 2.9 million units [3] - Domestic Chinese OEMs produced 2.3 million units, reflecting a notable 17.7% YoY uptick [3] Export Performance - In September, China's LV exports reached 611,000 units, representing a strong YoY increase of 18.2% and a month-over-month (MoM) rise of 7.1% [4] - Passenger vehicle exports led the expansion, with overseas shipments up by 19.5% YoY to 552,000 units [4] - From January through September, total shipments amounted to 4.6 million units, up by 12.6% compared to the same period in the previous year [4] Policy Changes - Trade-in subsidies in China are being tightened, with a lottery system implemented in key regions like Shanghai, effectively making it a de facto national policy for Q4 2025 [5] - As of October 22, 2025, applications for subsidies under the national car trade-in program exceeded 10 million, prompting policy adjustments to control fiscal expenditure [5]