Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius: It looks like employment growth is fairly close to zero

Core Insights - The current job market is showing signs of weakness, potentially nearing the worst conditions in 50 years outside of a recession [1][2] - Employment growth appears to be close to zero, with job openings and hiring trends continuing to decline [4][5] - The GDP is projected to be around 3.6% for the current quarter, but labor market indicators are deemed more reliable for assessing economic health [8][9] Employment Trends - Confidence numbers indicate a low expected change in the unemployment rate, typically seen only during recessions [3] - Layoff notices and announcements are increasing, raising concerns about future employment stability [7] - Current employment growth metrics suggest a stagnation rather than improvement, with weak job openings and hiring [6] Economic Indicators - GDP growth appears strong at 3.6%, but is influenced by inventory changes and front-loading effects [8] - Labor market data is prioritized over GDP figures for a clearer picture of economic conditions [9] - Inflation numbers are generally positive, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December despite uncertainties [15] Technology Impact - There is speculation that technology, particularly AI, may be impacting the labor market more quickly than previously anticipated, although current trends are largely attributed to post-pandemic conditions [11][12]