Rivian Loses Steam on Mixed Signals; Trades Below Tesla

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive, Inc. reported mixed signals following its third-quarter update, leading to a decline in share price despite strong revenue growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Rivian announced third-quarter total revenue of $1.56 billion, a 78% year-over-year increase, exceeding the Street consensus estimate of $1.50 billion [2]. - The company reported a consolidated gross profit of $24 million for the quarter [3]. - Rivian posted a loss of 65 cents per share, which was better than the analyst consensus estimate of a loss of 72 cents per share [3]. Analyst Insights - JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman maintained an Underweight rating with a price forecast of $10, suggesting that Rivian will grow rapidly after 2025 but will require significant capital [4]. - Brinkman noted that Rivian's valuation is more favorable compared to Tesla but less favorable than General Motors and Ford [5]. - The analyst highlighted that Rivian achieved a positive gross profit for the third quarter, marking its third profitable quarter since going public, and this was the first quarter without reliance on regulatory credits [5]. Future Projections - Brinkman kept the 2025 EBITDA loss outlook unchanged at approximately $2.2 billion, slightly up from a previous estimate of $2.0 billion [6]. - The 2026 EBITDA loss estimate was adjusted to $1.6 billion, down from $1.5 billion, while the 2027 forecast was revised to a $200 million profit, down from $300 million [7]. - Management maintained its 2025 EBITDA loss outlook despite the softer third-quarter results and updated projections [6]. Stock Performance - Rivian Automotive shares were down 4.01% at $14.61 at the time of publication [7].