Treasury Yields Snapshot: November 7, 2025

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.11% as of November 7, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.55% and the 30-year note at 4.70% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-2 spread has shown a consistent negative trend from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [3] - The 10-3 month spread also turned negative recently, indicating potential recession signals, with lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks [5] Mortgage Rate Trends - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs, and while typically a rising FFR leads to higher mortgage rates, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.22%, marking one of the lowest levels in over a year [7] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policies have significantly impacted market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - Various ETFs associated with Treasuries, such as Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT), are available for investors [9]