Signs of US Labor Market Weakness Weigh on Stocks

Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Developments - The US Supreme Court is questioning the legality of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, with Chief Justice Roberts emphasizing that imposing taxes is a core power of Congress [1] - Lower courts have ruled Trump's tariffs illegal, based on a questionable claim of emergency authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1] - If the Supreme Court upholds these rulings, the US government may need to refund over $80 billion in tariffs already collected [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - US job cuts surged by 175.3% year-over-year in October, totaling 153,074, marking the largest increase in seven months and the highest for an October in 22 years [3][5] - Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [3] - The ongoing US government shutdown is impacting market sentiment and delaying government reports, adversely affecting the economy [8] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Market Performance - 81% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q3 earnings have beaten expectations, indicating a strong earnings season, although profits are expected to rise by only 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years [4][7] - The S&P 500 Index is down 0.19%, with the Dow Jones down 0.15% and the Nasdaq down 0.45%, reflecting concerns over the labor market [6] - Strong corporate earnings are providing support for stocks despite the cooling labor market [4] Group 4: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The markets are pricing in a 69% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [2] - The 10-year T-note yield has decreased by 5 basis points to 4.11%, influenced by weak labor reports and expectations of continued Fed rate cuts [4][9] - European government bond yields are also declining, with the 10-year German bund yield down 0.7 basis points to 2.666% [10]