被特朗普铜关税暴击才过三个月，“史上最赚钱“套利交易卷土重来?

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resurgence of copper arbitrage trading as traders bet on the potential reintroduction of high tariffs on copper by the Trump administration in the coming year [1][2] - Major trading firms, including Mercuria Energy Group, Vitol Group, and Trafigura Group, are negotiating annual agreements for copper supply to the U.S. for 2026, with offers exceeding the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price by over $500 per ton [1][2] - The expectation of renewed tariffs has led to a significant increase in the price of copper on the New York Comex, which is now substantially higher than LME prices, indicating a potential continuation of market volatility [1][2] Group 2 - Earlier this year, traders like Mercuria and Trafigura profited significantly by shipping large quantities of copper to the U.S. before the initial tariff announcement, which resulted in record import levels and pushed copper prices to historical highs despite weak demand [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the implementation of tariffs until 2027, with a proposed 15% tariff increasing to 30% by 2028, creating uncertainty that traders are eager to exploit [2] - The willingness of traders to pay high premiums for copper is driven by the potential for higher resale prices in the U.S. market [2]